The Future AI Could Be as Deadly as Pandemics and Nuclear Weapons: How Great Power Competition Is Making Artificial Intelligence Existentially Dangerous

Everything dies — that’s a fact. And, if the world cannot manage the current race to superhuman artificial intelligence between great powers, everything may die much sooner than expected.

The past year has witnessed an explosion in the capabilities of artificial intelligence systems. The bulk of these advances have occurred in generative AI — systems that produce novel text, image, audio, or video content from human input. The American company OpenAI took the world by storm with its public release of the ChatGPT large language model (LLM) in November 2022. In March, it released an updated version of ChatGPT powered by the more powerful GPT-4 model. Microsoft and Google have followed suit with Bing AI and Bard, respectively.

Beyond the world of text, generative applications Midjourney, DALL-E, and Stable Diffusion produce unprecedentedly realistic images and videos. These models have burst into the public consciousness rapidly. Most people have begun to understand that generative AI is an unparalleled innovation, a type of machine that possesses capacities — natural language generation and artistic production — long thought to be sacrosanct domains of human ability.

But generative AI is only the beginning. A team of Microsoft AI scientists recently released a paper arguing that GPT-4 — arguably the most sophisticated LLM yet — is showing the “sparks” of artificial general intelligence (AGI), an AI that is as smart — or smarter — than humans in every area of intelligence, rather than simply in one task. They argue that, “[b]eyond its mastery of language, GPT-4 can solve novel and difficult tasks that span mathematics, coding, vision, medicine, law, psychology and more, without needing any special prompting." In these multiple areas of intelligence, GPT-4 is “strikingly close to human-level performance.” In short, GPT-4 appears to presage a program that can think and reason like a human. Half of surveyed AI experts expect an AGI in the next 40 years.

AGI is the holy grail for tech companies involved in AI development— primarily the field’s leaders, OpenAI and Google subsidiary DeepMind — because of the unfathomable profits and world-historical glory that would come with being the first to develop human-level machine intelligence.

The private sector, however, is not the only relevant actor.

Because leadership in AI offers advantages both in economic competitiveness and military prowess, great powers — primarily the United States and China — are racing to develop advanced AI systems. Much ink has been spilled on the risks of the military applications of AI, which have the potential to reshape the strategic and tactical domains alike by powering autonomous weapons systems, cyberweapons, nuclear command and control, and intelligence gathering. Many politicians and defense planners in both countries believe the winner of the AI race will secure global dominance.

But the consequences of such a race are potentially far more reaching than who wins global hegemony. The perception of an AI “arms race” is likely to accelerate the already-risky development of AI systems. The pressure to outpace adversaries by rapidly pushing the frontiers of a technology that we still do not fully understand or fully control — without commensurate efforts to make AI safe for humans — may well present an existential risk to humanity’s continued existence.

An Arms Race?

The dangers of arms races are well-established by history. Throughout the late 1950s, American policymakers began to fear that the Soviet Union was outpacing the U.S. in deployment of nuclear-capable missiles. This ostensible “missile gap” pushed the U.S. to scale up its ballistic missile development to “catch up” to the Soviets.

In the early 1960s, it became clear the missile gap was a myth. The United States, in fact, led the Soviet Union in missile technology. However, just the perception of falling behind an adversary contributed to a destabilizing buildup of nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, with all its associated dangers of accidents, miscalculations, and escalation.

Missile gap logic is rearing its ugly head again today, this time with regard to artificial intelligence, which could be more dangerous than nuclear weapons. China’s AI efforts are raising fears among American officials, who are concerned about falling behind. New Chinese leaps in AI inexorably produce flurries of warnings that China is on its way to dominating the field.

The reality of such a purported “AI gap” is complicated. Beijing does appear to lead the U.S. in military AI innovation. China also leads the world in AI academic journal citations and commands a formidable talent base. However, when it comes to the pursuit of AGI, China seems to be the laggard. Chinese companies’ LLMs are 1-3 years behind their American counterparts, and OpenAI set the pace for generative models. Furthermore, the Biden administration’s 2022 export controls on advanced computer chips cut China off from a key hardware prerequisite for building advanced AI.

Whoever is “ahead” in the AI race, however, is not the most important question. The mere perception of an “arms race” may well push companies and governments to cut corners and eschew safety research and regulation. For AI — a technology whose safety relies upon slow, steady, regulated, and collaborative development — an arms race may be catastrophically dangerous.

The Alignment Problem

Despite dramatic successes in AI, humans still cannot reliably predict or control its outputs and actions. While research focused on AI capabilities has produced stunning advancements, the same cannot be said for research in the field of AI alignment, which aims to ensure AI systems can be controlled by their designers and made to act in a way that is compatible with humanity’s interests.

Anyone who has used ChatGPT understands this lack of human control. It is not difficult to circumvent the program’s guardrails, and it is far too easy to encourage chatbots to say offensive things. When it comes to more advanced models, even if designers are brilliant and benevolent, and even if the AI pursues only its human-chosen ultimate goals, there remains a path to catastrophe.

Consider the following thought experiment about how AGI may be deployed. A human-level or superhuman intelligence is programmed by its human creators with a defined, benign goal — say, “develop a cure for Alzheimer’s,” or “increase my factory’s production of paperclips.” The AI is given access to a constrained “environment” of instruments: for instance, a medical lab or a factory.

The problem with such deployment is that, while humans can program AI to pursue a chosen ultimate end, it is infeasible that each instrumental, or intermediate, subgoal that the AI will pursue — think acquiring steel before it can make paperclips — can be defined by humans.

AI works through machine learning: it trains on vast amounts of data and “learns,” based on that data, how to produce desired outputs from its inputs. However, the process by which AI connects inputs to outputs — the internal calculations it performs “under the hood” — is a “black box.” Humans cannot understand precisely what an AI is learning to do. For example, an AI trained to “pick strawberries” might instead have learned to “pick the nearest red object” and, when released into a different environment, pick both strawberries and red peppers. Further examples abound.

In short, an AI might do precisely what it was trained to do and still produce an unwanted outcome. The means to its programmed ends — crafted by an alien, incomprehensible intelligence — could be prejudicial to humans. The “Alzheimer’s” AI might kidnap billions of human subjects as test subjects. The “paperclip” AI might turn the entire Earth into metal to make paperclips. Because humans can neither predict every possible means AI might employ nor “teach” it to reliably perform a definite action, programming away any dangerous outcome is infeasible.

If sufficiently intelligent, and capable of defeating resistant humans, an AI may well wipe out life on Earth in its single-minded pursuit of its goal. If given control of nuclear command and control — like the Skynet system in Terminator — or access to chemicals and pathogens, AI could engineer an existential catastrophe.

Arms Racing or Alignment Governance? A Risky Tradeoff

How does international competition come into play when discussing the technical issue of alignment? Put simply, the faster AI advances, the less time we will have to learn how to align it. The alignment problem is not yet solved, nor is it likely to be solved in time without slower and more safety-conscious development.

The fear of losing a technological arms race may encourage corporations and governments to accelerate development and cut corners, deploying advanced systems before they are safe. Many top AI scientists and organizations — among them the team at safety lab Anthropic, Open Philanthropy’s Ajeya Cotra, DeepMind founder Demis Hassabis, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman — believe that gradual development is preferable to rapid development because it offers researchers more time to build safety features into new models; it is easier to align a less powerful model than a more powerful one.

Furthermore, fears of China’s “catching up” may imperil efforts to enact AI governance and regulatory measures that could slow down dangerous development and speed up alignment. Altman and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt are on record warning Congress that regulation will slow down American companies to China’s benefit. A top Microsoft executive has used the language of the Soviet missile gap. The logic goes: “AGI is inevitable, so the United States should be first.” The problem is that, in the words of Paul Scharre, “AI technology poses risks not just to those who lose the race but also to those who win it.”

Likewise, the perception of an arms race may preclude the development of a global governance framework on AI. A vicious cycle may emerge where an arms race prevents international agreements, which increases paranoia and accelerates that same arms race.

International conventions on the nonproliferation of nuclear bombs and missiles and the multilateral ban on biological weapons were great Cold War successes that defused arms races. Similar conventions over AI could dissuade countries from rapidly deploying AI into more risky domains in an effort to increase national power. More global cooperation over AI’s deployment will reduce the risk that a misaligned AI is integrated into military — and even nuclear — applications that would give it a greater capacity to create a catastrophe for humanity.

While it is currently unclear whether government regulation could meaningfully increase the chances of solving AI alignment, regulation — both domestic and multilateral — may at least encourage slower and steadier development.

Fortunately, momentum for private Sino-American cooperation on AI alignment may be building. American AI executives and experts have met with their Chinese counterparts to discuss alignment research and mutual governance. Altman himself recently went on a world tour to discuss AI capabilities and regulation with world leaders. As governments are educated as to the risks of AI, the tide may be turning toward a more collaborative world. Such a shift would unquestionably be good news.

However, the outlook is not all rosy: as the political salience of AI continues to increase, the questions of speed, regulation, and cooperation may become politicized into the larger American partisan debate over China. Regulation may be harder to push when “China hawks” begin to associate slowing AI with losing an arms race to China. Recent rhetoric in Congress has emphasized the AI arms race and downplayed the necessity of regulation.

Whether or not it is real, the United States and China appear convinced that the AI arms race is happening — an extremely dangerous proposition for a world that does not otherwise appear to be on the verge of an alignment breakthrough. A detente on this particular technological race — however unlikely it may seem today — may be critical to humanity’s long-term flourishing.

JESUS DID TELL US TO PREPARE — FOR OURSELVES AND SO THAT WE CAN HELP OTHERS: NOW DO YOU SEE THE WORDS OF JESUS COMING TO PASS THAT IF HE DIDNT SHORTEN THE DAYS - SLEEPING PEOPLE STILL DONT SEE HUMAN EXTINCTION!

Luke, Chapter 21 is an interesting area of Scripture that deserves our study. More study than I will have time to go into in this message. It begins with the disciples admiring the beauty of the temple, and Jesus telling them that there will come a day when not one stone will be left upon another. The disciples ask Him when this will happen.

And then Jesus speaks of false christs and how many will follow after them. He speaks of wars and rumors of wars, but says that “these things must come to pass first, but the end will not come immediately.”

And then, starting at verse 10, we read, “Then He said to them, ‘Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. And there will be great earthquakes in various places, and famines and pestilences; and there will be fearful sights and great signs from heaven. But before all these things, they will lay their hands on you and persecute you, delivering you up to the synagogues and prisons. You will be brought before kings and rulers for My name’s sake. But it will turn out for you as an occasion for testimony. Therefore settle it in your hearts not to meditate beforehand on what you will answer; for I will give you a mouth and wisdom which all your adversaries will not be able to contradict or resist. You will be betrayed even by parents and brothers, relatives and friends; and they will put some of you to death. And you will be hated by all for My name’s sake.’”

In verse 20, He says, “when you see Jerusalem surrounded by armies, then know that its desolation is near.” Jesus goes on to describe the destruction of Jerusalem, which we know took place in the year 70 A.D.

This chapter of Luke describes not only the destruction of Jerusalem in 70 A.D., but also the last days before Jesus’ second coming. I believe He often explained things that would be taking place soon right alongside things that would be taking place at His second coming.

In Luke 21, He goes on the describe His second coming starting in verse 25: “And there will be signs in the sun, in the moon, and in the stars; and on the earth distress of nations, with perplexity, the sea and the waves roaring; men’s hearts failing them from fear and the expectation of those things which are coming on the earth, for the powers of the heavens will be shaken. Then they will see the Son of Man coming in a cloud with power and great glory. Now when these things begin to happen, look up and lift up your heads, because your redemption draws near.”

In verse 29, Jesus tells them the parable of the fig tree — how when we see the tree begin to start budding, we know that summer is near. And then He says, “So you also, when you see these things happening, know that the kingdom of God is near. Assuredly, I say to you, this generation will by no means pass away ‘til all things take place. Heaven and earth will pass away, but My words will by no means pass away.”

Then a warning for us to be prepared for His coming: “But take heed to yourselves, lest your hearts be weighed down with carousing, drunkenness, and cares of this life and that Day come on you unexpectedly. For it will come as a snare on all those who dwell on the face of the whole earth. Watch, therefore, and pray always that you may be counted worthy to escape all these things that will come to pass, and to stand before the Son of Man.”

Obviously, He was speaking not only of the destruction of the city and the temple in 70 A.D., but also His second coming…because the generation that saw the temple destroyed did pass away, and like Christians in every generation, they did suffer great persecution first.

But Jesus spoke of a generation of people on the earth that would witness His second coming firsthand, and His coming would be preceeded by signs in the sun, moon and stars, distress of nations here on earth, with perplexity. The sea and waves roaring. Men’s hearts failing them because of fear. Famines, pestilences. The powers of the heavens are shaken. And THEN they see the Son of Man coming on a cloud with power and great glory. That didn’t happen in 70 A.D., but it WILL happen when Jesus returns.

We’re admonished to pay attention to the signs leading up to His coming, like the fig tree, and when we see all those things taking place, to be ready for that Great and Terrible Day of the Lord. We’re also told that this day will come as a snare on all who dwell on the face of the whole earth — most will be paying no attention to the most important things. Instead, they’ll be caught up with carousing, drunkenness, and hearts weighed down with the cares of this life. Most will be unprepared. Have you tried to explain the truth of what’s been happening to someone who knows nothing about the Globalist agenda? You’ll find they don’t care at all. In fact, they think you’re crazy. Just as the devil and his demons hope for. Distracted by the cares of this world, carousing, entertainment, luxury and ease… yet Jesus said His coming will be a “snare” on all who dwell on the face of the whole earth.

Yes, Jesus tells us to prepare and be ready, to understand the wiles of the devil and be prepared to do daily battle. I think we should always be prepared to meet our Lord, because none of us knows the number of our days. And persecution of Christ-followers is greater in America now than it’s ever been. There was a time when being a “good Christian” was a good thing, but now, according to our American government, there’s no greater threat to the nation than those who name the name of Christ. We are the new “terrorists” that must be done way with. Perhaps more precisely stated: no greater threat to their demonic regime, but I digress.

Yes, we’ll be seeing signs in the sky — in the sun, moon and stars. The sea will be roaring. Men’s hearts will be failing them for fear. Distress of nations with perplexity. This reads like every day’s headlines now. I’m sure many generations saw their own days in these words, but never before have we seen the “buds” on the “fig tree” so ready to burst forth with fruit as we see every day now.

I’m not one to just sit back and wait for the Lord’s return. I believe we’re to occupy until He returns.  I believe when He comes, we should be found doing our Father’s business. I believe we should be living each and every day circumspectly, following in our Savior’s footsteps the best we can, redeeming the time, because the days are evil. And I believe we should always be prepared.

One of our readers, from Maryland, recently suggested that I speak on the topic of being prepared and so I’ll share some thoughts with you here. We must all be prepared for the days ahead — whether we live to see our Savior’s coming on the clouds of heaven or whether we go to be with Him on our own first — because things are not getting any better in this world. On the contrary, the days are becoming darker all the time, as evil is celebrated and good is vilified. Justice no longer exists in our country, and we cannot expect justice for ourselves when our doors are broken down and we’re unjustly accused, tried and sentenced. This is happening on a daily basis now — yes, to Christians, and yes, here in America. Christ-followers are now “public enemy number one” in just about every area of society. I’m not just talking about “church-goers.” Simply going to church and calling oneself a “Christian” won’t get you into any hot water. But start actually living the Christian life — start actually following Jesus — and you’ll find it is THEN that you become a “terrorist.” That’s when you become the greatest threat to the regime.

So we must prepare spiritually and physically. Jesus told us what’s coming. He gave us the “weather forecast” and told us what to expect and that we should prepare. If we’re caught in a “snare” like the rest of the world when the storm hits, we’ll have no one to blame but ourselves. The time for preparation is now — before the storm. Here’s how we can prepare spiritually:

First, review your commitment to Jesus and draw closer to Him. 2 Corinthians 13:5 says, “Examine yourselves as to whether you are in the faith. Test yourselves.” Also pray without ceasing. (1 Thessalonians 5:17). Be in constant communication with the Father, through the Son and the Holy Spirit. Be in such close contact that you need only utter a “thought” to the Lord and you KNOW that He not only hears you but is ready and willing to answer every prayer.

Many think they’re “good to go” with God’s Word… no need for a time of serious Bible study every day. But we need more Bible study, not less. There’s always more to learn, and the most devout of Bible students always finds new insights every time He opens the Scriptures.

And as you sanctify yourselves, redeeming the time, spending more time in communion with the Lord, seek out good and Godly teachers — perhaps men of old, heroes of the faith — or modern day saints who are teaching the whole counsel of God. Run from people pleasers. Also, your heart will rejoice at the great old hymns of the faith as you draw closer to Christ as well… in a way the “praise choruses” of modern so-called “worship music” can never do. Listen to, and sing, some of the old hymns each day, and be blessed.

As we pray without ceasing, we should also maintain a prayer journal and an intercessory prayer list, praying for family members, neighbors, friends, co-workers, and others. Pray for their physical needs, but more importantly, their spiritual needs, that they may come to know Christ as Savior and that you may have an opportunity to lead them to Him. This is the will of God.

Regarding physical preparation, take this time now to get any dental work, eye exams and medical issues taken care of. Improve your health naturally and keep your immune system strong. Pay attention to what you eat, and eat as close to naturally as you possibly can. Understand that today’s genetically-modified foods (which is just about all of them now) are not only unhealthy, they’re designed to keep you sick. Eat clean and be healthy. Let your food be your medicine. Don’t allow yourself to be weak and sickly when the storm comes, if you can build and strengthen your health naturally now. Then you’ll not only fare better yourself, but you’ll be prepared to help others as well.

Pay off debts as soon as possible and live within your means. Make sure you have a vehicle that’s reliable and one you can drive long distances in emergency situations if necessary. Get out of crime-ridden cities. Seek small towns, and even the countryside, if possible. The cities are only going to continue to decline and get worse. They’ll also be the first places to be locked down under government control and martial law. For the safety of yourself and your family, escape now, while you still can.

Begin storing pure water, and have a way to purify it again when you’re ready to use it. Understand that in the wild, the one place where most animals become easy prey is at the watering hole. Don’t get yourself in that position. Start a system of storing, maintaining and purifying water now. We cannot live without it. Along with water, begin storing food that will last until needed, and have multiple ways to cook and prepare it with no electricity or gas to cook with. Food and water will become necessities when we’re no longer allowed to buy or sell as Christians. They’ll also be valuable for bartering in an underground economy, which I believe will be needed soon. And have ways to heat your home off the grid, so you don’t freeze to death in winter.

Now, these are just a few ideas, but yes, Jesus did tell us to prepare — for ourselves and so that we can help others. I don’t believe we’ll escape the coming storm… why else would He tell us to prepare? Before He comes on the clouds of heaven, we’ll see great confusion, distress of nations, with perplexity; men’s hearts failing them for fear. Chaos. Anarchy. Sounds like to bad storm to me. And we know the wiles of the enemy, the Globalists, bent on our destruction. We’ve already been named as the most dangerous threat to America. A prudent Christ-follower would prepare for the storm before it hits and overtakes us. Jesus told us to be ready. Let us not be “ensnared” like the rest of the world.